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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-23T04:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-23T04:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28733/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from AR 13561 at S19W31. Dimming and EUV wave with southward deflection seen in SDO AIA 193 around S19W31 starting at 2024-01-23T03:15Z. Opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13561 (S19W31), which occurs simultaneously with a higher intensity flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T13:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28765/1
Model Inputs:
2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=563.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T04:22Z
2024-01-23T04:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=613.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T09:50Z
2024-01-23T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=35.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=577.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2024-01-23T13:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-26T13:26Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =32.1 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-26T10:30Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-28T14:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-26T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240123_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 43.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-01-24T17:29Z

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